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One billion bitcoin users in 2018? There are two groups of bitcoin users. Some use clients to store their wallet, others use an online wallet.

Clients have to connect to the network during the blockchain download. On blockchain.info you can research the number of unique IPs. At the moment there are 1.6 Mio. Clients using a different IP. Compared to 1.25 half a year ago. Resulting in a yearly growth rate of 63%.

More than 40 providers of an online wallet can be found in the bitcoin wiki. 127 000 users have an online wallet at blockchain.info. Compared to 23 000 users half a year ago. Consequently we get an insane yearly growth rate of 30 500%.

Adding the client users, users of blockchains online wallet and the rest of the more than 40 online wallet providers we make an educated guess of 2 Mio users at the moment.

If we take a look at facebooks growth rate: http://www.benphoster.com/facebook-user-growth-chart-2004-2010. We see that it took seven years to increase the user base from 2 mio. to one billion. One billion bitcoin users in 2018? I am sure bitcoin can beat facebook.

Further VISA has 1.7 Billion users at the moment. One valued with 50USD. This would price bitcoins at 3571USD in 2018. 14 Mio. coins multiplied by 3571 divided by 1 billion users would value one user at 50USD.

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The information posted here should not be considered legal, financial or other advice and is not intended to replace consultation with a qualified professional or specific written confirmation from the IFEM. We do not answer specific legal or financial questions.


( 3 comments — Leave a comment )
Feb. 28th, 2013 04:23 pm (UTC)
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eeeaasy now... eeeeasy now, boy.

I hope it does but bitcoin is not easy to understand or explain. It's new and the average person is hesitant to jump in right now. We need better clients and more sites accepting it. Buying & spending coins needs to be as easy as trading cat pictures.

I just started learning and I'm a bit confused. And here I'm the computer geek in the family who fixes everyone's computer problems (I want to help). I try explaining to a friend who owes me money and he's not buying into it. There's too much uncertainty for him but I'll be starting small with him to build trust and learn this myself.

I'm going the slow route of buying coins from coinbase because I don't want to meet up with someone local to buy a few coins. I also don't want to deal with wire transfers or visiting some bank not of my choosing.

I definitely think it has a future and my biggest hope is it crushes paypal but its got a long way to go.

[–]soundanalysis[S] 1 point 59 minutes ago

I would be happy if bitcoin takes some time, but I just wanted to show that their is a lot of room to increase in value.

[–]alsomahler 2 points 31 minutes ago

There IS a lot of room, but you have to look at many more aspects than just growth rate and percentages. Centralized vs distributed networks have both advantages and disadvantages (some shared by the general public and people in power, some opposed) and the Bitcoin network has mutable and immutable characteristics which apply. There will come a point in the near future where the Bitcoin bubble will burst because people over-estimated how quickly the world can adapt to new technology.

I think Bitcoin (or something similar) has a large future on the long term 20+ years, but on the short term, it is very volatile and a risky investment. Public understanding is too low and any story about hackers or scandals or government intervention will lead to "bank runs". I don't think this will be solved in the next 5 years.

[–]soundanalysis[S] 1 point 27 minutes ago

I am sorry, but if you have a potential gain of 100x, of course the path will be volatile. Its enough if you succed more than 1% in ventures like this.

[–]alsomahler 1 point 6 minutes ago

No need to be sorry. I understand your excitement. I don't mind losing money on Bitcoin (not that invested anyway because of the risk involved) but if it ends up being an alternative to PayPal, VISA and/or MasterCard - on par with Business Adoption - I'm happy.
Feb. 28th, 2013 04:25 pm (UTC)
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[–]FuckImOnRedditAgain 2 points 1 hour ago

Further VISA has 1.7 Billion users at the moment.

There is no way in hell bitcoin grows to ~60% of Visa's size by 2018.

[–]soundanalysis[S] 2 points 58 minutes ago

Do you like to bet sir?

[–]FuckImOnRedditAgain 1 point 21 minutes ago

Would I have money in bitcoin if I didn't?

I like your optimism, I just don't see it happening. Want to put a bitcoin on it?

I'm going to tag you as "guy who owes me a bitcoin in 2018" now.

[–]soundanalysis[S] 1 point 1 minute ago

Whats the odds? You win, you get one. I win I get 90?

Feb. 28th, 2013 04:26 pm (UTC)
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[–]ferroh 2 points 1 hour ago

It's probably going to take more than 5 years to build the infrastructure to reach 1 billion users.

I know it seems like I'm being negative or bearish, but I think it's better to set realistic expectations and meet them -- increasing confidence in what bitcoin can do -- than it is to set extremely high expectations and then lose confidence when bitcoin does meet them.

I have little doubt that bitcoin will grow, but 1 billion users in 5 years is a stretch.

If we were growing as fast as facebook did, we'd have many millions of users already.

It's not Bitcoin's fault. It's a radically new concept that needs infrastructure built to work. Facebook is different in that regard.

[–]soundanalysis[S] 1 point 54 minutes ago

I am sure the network can handle a yearly rate of 350%.

[–]frugal-guy 2 points 44 minutes ago*

This analysis is conservative with regard to future bitcoin value.

There are two primary roles for bitcoins: (1) a credit token for buying and selling things, including fiat currencies, and (2) a deflating store of value.

The article addresses only the first role. Research on the blockchain has determined the great majority of bitcoins seldom participate in transactions - thus they serve their owners as a store of value. Other analysis of global monetary aggregates which could be disrupted by widespread bitcoin adoption suggest that ultimate bitcoin value is several orders of magnitude higher than $1000. For example, suppose that a majority of persons and entities worldwide held cash in bitcoin denominated accounts rather than accounts denominated in fiat currency. They don't have to continuously transact bitcoins in order to use them as a deflating store of value.

Just suppose, that Apple Corp decided to put its cash hoard of 137 billion USD into a bitcoin account to protect against the inflating dollar. Very roughly, that would expand the bitcoin market cap by 380x, to value each bitcoin at $12,768. This is just one large US company ...

[–]soundanalysis[S] 1 point 37 minutes ago

Thank you for your reply. Can you provide a link to this analysis. I will update the next version with this information. kind regards.

[–]frugal-guy 2 points 22 minutes ago

Here is one ... http://cs702.wordpress.com/2011/05/29/on-the-potential-adoption-and-price-appreciation-of-bitcoin-in-the-long-run/

Check out the four part series by Falkvinge, back in 2011 ... http://falkvinge.net/2011/05/29/why-im-putting-all-my-savings-into-bitcoin/

[–]soundanalysis[S] 1 point 20 minutes ago

thanks. Work through them.
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