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Review ASICminer, Butterflylab and Avalon.


If you have 42 bitcoins you can preoder one 60GHs hashing monster from Butterfly Labs, one from Avalon or you can buy shares from ASICminer (we will treat the shares as a virtual hashing monster with 60GHs in this review). We want to know how many coins we can mine during the rest of 2013. First we have to make an educated guess about the future hash power of the whole network. Our assumption is 50THs avg. hashing power for Q1, doubling every three months resulting in 400THs for Q4 2013. Using this simple model we earn 360BTC in Q1 and 45BTC in Q4.

Modelling the virtual hashing device is tricky. I start as simple as possible and will refine in later reviews. 400k shares represent 12THs. I value one share at 0.5BTC. Consequently giving the virtual device a value of 1000BTC (60GHS). I assume ASICminer adds 48THs in Q2. Resulting in one device for 50% in Q1, 6 devices starting in Q2. Sure there is additional value, but in this model I will assign zero BTC to keep it as simple as possible. This virtual device earns 360BTC(share of 12THs) in Q1 and 1890BTC(share of 60THs) in the rest of the year. We bought the shares for 1000 and received 2250BTC. Giving the virtual device a BTC Multiplicator of 2.25 (one BTC now gives 2.25 in one year).

If you preorder an Avalon now you should start mining in first halve of may. Resulting in 225 earned coins. Multiplicator is 5.2.

If you preorder a Butterfly device you should start mining in june. Resulting in 196BTC and a Multiplicator 4.5.

Concluding all other things equal (of course the NOT, but we have to start with a simple model) the review ends with:
Avalon 5.2, Butterfly 4.5 and ASICminer 2.25. Thanks for your time and I am looking forward to your comments.

Update

ASICminer paid 3860BTC divindends in first week. Friedcat will publish further project plans including trading of shares shortly.

Shares costed 0.1 during IPO 400,000 shares. About ~163962 shares will be paid back to 0.1 in dividends before the other shares receive dividends (early return). Right now hashrate is upwards of 5TH, but deployment of 7 more TH is likely in the next two weeks. Deployment of an additional 50TH is somewhat likely next month. BFL/Avalon are selling much more efficient boards, so depending on their rollout rate, ASICMINER could ultimately lag behind in node size. But production rate is unrivaled.

Comments

( 6 comments — Leave a comment )
btcmining
Feb. 26th, 2013 08:25 pm (UTC)
transfer of reddit discussion
How did you model the difficulty? Also, a useful way of understanding / performing the analysis is to run two estimates: one where you conservatively estimate everything (low avg hash for everyone, high difficulty, late BFL delivery, etc), and one where you liberally estimate everything (high avg hash est, lower difficulty, sooner BFL delivery).
btcmining
Feb. 26th, 2013 08:26 pm (UTC)
Re: transfer of reddit discussion
Thanks for your reply. Wanted to bring the first model out as soon as possible to discuss in this community. There is a lot of room to refine it. Sure you can model in difficulty, I choose hashpower. Basically its the same. I am sure delivery >> price >> power usage.

I collect your suggestions and will add it to the next model. kind regards.
wheazerr
Feb. 26th, 2013 10:09 pm (UTC)
Hash rate
BFL alone has 74,000 7.5Gh/s chips on the way. There is no doubt that they will sell all of them very quickly. This brings the network to more than 500Th/s within a short time. I think 300Th/s by quarter 4 is WAY off the mark. Just the first two batches from BFL take the network to more than 100Th/s and we know that they have pre-sold all of those. They will all be shipped by the end of April (well, if BFL is to be believed)

btcmining
Feb. 28th, 2013 10:26 am (UTC)
Re: Hash rate
Thanks, would really appreciate if you could post the link to the size of BFL first batches.

Avalon is 18THs (1) and 36THs(2)
ASICminer is 12THs(1) and 50THs(2)
BFL 555THs in what time frame?

kind regards and thanks for your reply.
btcmining
Feb. 28th, 2013 10:10 am (UTC)
transfer reddit discussion
dresdenreader
Well.

You can't buy ASICminer. It's basically just a mining corporation, and people already bought shares of it before it went live.

If you order from Butterflylabs, you probably won't see a device until June or July.

Avalon might an option, but you've already missed their pre-order phases, and I'm not sure when they're having their next one. Also, I'm not sure how quickly you might get one even if you were able to pre-order.

My advice? Consider buying shares of satoshi dice and reaping the dividends. http://mpex.co/


[–]HTL2001

Avalon units use 620w, $815/yr or about 26.3BTC for the 65GH/s, and BFL 60GH/s unit uses about 60w which costs roughly $80/yr or about 2.6BTC (using $0.15/kWh).

The shipping date is already factored in the article's calculation.

The Avalon unit still has higher return factor in 1 year, but has such high power requirements that it would stop being profitable sooner than a BFL unit.
btcmining
Feb. 28th, 2013 10:19 am (UTC)
Re: transfer reddit discussion
@dresdenreader
Thats right ASICminer is not listed at an exchange at the moment, but you can buy shares in the market auctions of the bitcoin forum (https://bitcointalk.org). Further you can buy shares at https://bitfunder.com/ (first batch butterfly lab).

@htl2001
Thank you I will refine the next review using the power usage, but availability >> price >> power usage.

Thanks for your replies.
( 6 comments — Leave a comment )